Why A Recession Does Not Equal a Housing Crisis

Why A Recession Does Not Equal a Housing Crisis

  • Joey Remington
  • 05/13/23

A Recession Doesn’t Equal a Housing Crisis


Everywhere you look, people are talking about a potential recession. And if you're planning to buy or sell a house, this may leave you wondering if your plans are still a wise move. But here's the good news: experts are saying that if we do officially enter a recession, it'll be mild and short. The Federal Reserve, in their March meeting, projected a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years.

While a recession may be on the horizon, it won't be one for the housing market record books like the crash in 2008. It's essential to remember that a recession doesn't always lead to a housing crisis.

To put your mind at ease, let's look at the historical data and see what happened in real estate during previous recessions. This way, you'll understand why you shouldn't be afraid of what a recession could mean for the housing market today.

To begin, let's address a common concern: falling home prices. Many people remember the housing crisis in 2008 and fear that another recession will lead to a similar crash. However, the current housing market is fundamentally different from what it was then. In 2008, an oversupply of homes for sale coincided with a flood of distressed properties hitting the market, causing prices to plummet. Today, the number of homes for sale is low, so while some areas may experience slight price declines, a crash simply isn't in the cards.

To further support this, let's turn to historical data. Looking back at recessions since 1980, we can see that home prices appreciated in four out of the last six recessions. This data demonstrates that when the economy slows down, it doesn't necessarily mean that home values will always fall.



Now, let's talk about what a recession means for mortgage rates. As history shows, each time the economy has slowed down, mortgage rates have decreased. During a traditional recession, the Federal Reserve usually lowers interest rates to stimulate the economy and create an incentive for people to spend money. This also leads to more affordable mortgage rates, providing opportunities for homebuyers.

Although mortgage rates have been volatile this year due to high inflation, if there is a recession, history tells us that rates may fall below their current levels. While we may not see the days of 3% rates again, a recession could still bring more favorable rates compared to what we've seen recently.

In summary, you don't need to fear what a recession means for the housing market. If a recession does occur, experts predict it will be mild and short-lived. Historical data shows that home prices don't necessarily fall during recessions, and in fact, they have appreciated in many cases. Additionally, a recession typically leads to falling mortgage rates, creating more opportunities for homebuyers. So, if you're considering buying or selling a house, don't let the talk of a potential recession deter you and contact a HAVEN GROUP agent today.


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